Does Elon Musk’s dream of satellite internet for all matter to anyone in China?
Experts say that even if China did let the SpaceX internet service Starlink operate in the country, which is unlikely, it would still be censored
Elon Musk is hoping that by next year, the SpaceX satellite internet service Starlink will be accessible to most of the world. The company has been moving fast to achieve this. Since the first launch in May of last year, it’s sent up 422 satellites across seven flights to low Earth orbit, creating the world's largest internet satellite constellation.
But even though the goal is to reach people who might not otherwise have access to high-speed internet, Starlink might be locked out of the country with the largest internet population. That’s because China also has one of the world's most tightly controlled internet environments.
Experts seem to agree that China may remain more inaccessible to SpaceX than outer space. To officially launch a service in China, SpaceX would need permission from local authorities, which would also mean complying with censorship. But there’s technically another way of doing things.
“I think the chances of Starlink getting market access in China would have to be very low, whether they have ISL or not,” said Blaine Curio, founder of Orbital Gateway Consulting.
ISL, or intersatellite links, is one way Starlink could theoretically access users in China. It obviates the need for ground stations in certain areas by sending data between satellites. This also results in lower latency and higher speeds. But the Chinese government likely wouldn’t appreciate this.
“It would, I think, be rather problematic for the government as it would essentially be a foreign ISP accessing China from space…” Curio said. “[It] would be mental but conceivable.”
If Starlink wanted to officially offer service in China, though, what would that look like?
SpaceX would first need permission from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), according to Lan Tianyi, founder of the Beijing-based space industry consultancy Ultimate Blue Nebula.
It’s not clear whether SpaceX has approached the MIIT. We reached out to SpaceX about the company’s plans for China, but we didn’t receive a response. But the company has received approval from similar authorities in other countries.
Given China’s own satellite internet plans, it would be a complicated procedure for the MIIT to determine whether to allow SpaceX to run Starlink in China, Lan told us. A technical prerequisite is frequency coordination between Starlink’s satellites and China’s own communication satellite systems. The MIIT would be in charge figuring out whether the systems are compatible with each other.
“An imprecise analogy would be to say a third person is listening to our conversation, and if they can’t hear your voice once I start talking, then it means my voice interfered with the system. The interference would make it impossible for you two to communicate,” Lan explained. “That’s when two systems are not compatible.”
If the systems are found to be compatible, then getting a permit to operate in China would still require SpaceX to guarantee that Starlink would comply with all of China’s telecommunications regulations, Lan said. That would put the data going into China within the country’s Great Firewall censorship apparatus.
The story of China’s Great Firewall, the world’s most sophisticated censorship system
If SpaceX fulfilled these conditions and got access to China, then it would still have to build gateways in the country. That’s because the Starlink satellites that have already been launched don’t have ISL. Each one currently needs to communicate with a ground station.
Gateways, on the other hand, are controlled by the countries where they’re located, something China might be more amenable to.
“It is not inconceivable that Musk would do the same thing,” Curio said.
One possible scenario would be for Starlink user terminals to be smuggled into China. It would then be technically possible for people with the terminals and an active account to use the service within the country.
“China can do that,” Musk said, prompting laughs from the audience. “So probably we shouldn’t broadcast there.”
Musk then added, “I’m hopeful that we can structure agreements with various countries to allow communication with their citizens, but it is a country-by-country basis.”
So if Starlink ever does figure out a way to officially provide service in China, it probably won’t make a difference to Chinese users, according to Lan. It would likely offer a similar user experience to landline internet, and it wouldn’t change the reality of internet censorship in the country.
“If you want to provide service in China, you have to comply with all of China’s requirements in terms of communications regulation, otherwise you won’t even get permission,” Lan said. “And if you satisfy regulators’ demands, then for users, it’s the same.”